Interview invites · live data
Who has sent transitional year invites this cycle, set against the same day of the 2025-26 cycle.
Live · Transitional Year
Final counts for transitional year applicants · n = 1,055
The transitional year match rate tops out at 81%, and it gets there at 12 invites — past that, more interviews bought almost nothing.
41% of transitional year applicants had their offers by this point in the cycle, and 27.4% named Mid October — the window you are in now. 59% of the field were still waiting at this point.
The 4.2% whose offers did not arrive until Late November still matched at 34% (n = 41), on a median of 3 invites.
The interviews themselves cluster in November (49.2%) and December (31.6%) — the weeks worth keeping clear.
How this is measured
Applicant-level self-reported survey rows pooled over survey years 2024-2025-2026, one row per applicant per specialty per cycle. `offers` is the distribution of interview offers received. `match_curve` is P(matched in this specialty | number of offers), binned adaptively to at least 25 applicants per bin and fit with pool-adjacent-violators so the curve is non-decreasing; ci_lo/ci_hi are Wilson intervals on the raw bin. `timing` is the share of applicants reporting their offers arrived in each window, and the outcome of the applicants in that window.
- Conditional, not causal. Applicants with more interviews are stronger applicants; the curve says what happened to people holding N offers, not what a marginal extra interview buys you.
- Matched means matched IN THIS SPECIALTY. An applicant who did not match here but matched a prelim year or a second specialty counts as unmatched.
- Self-reported by applicants at participating schools, so the sample skews US MD and toward schools that run the survey. IMG and DO counts are thinner than the national applicant pool.
- The timing question's earliest option is early October, so offers that arrived in September are folded into that window.